The New Wind of Democratic Change and the Demise of African Dictators:

The waves of the first wind of change that swept across the African continent in the early 1950s and 60s led to the end of colonial rule and ushered in independence for most countries that were trapped in the oppressive rule of the “white man”. The lead freedom fighters were hailed by their people as liberators and unanimous voices erected them to the helm of the newly created nation states upon achievement of independence. Under the new black leadership, the masses were lavished with promises of change, prosperity, unity , better treatment and all the sweet sounding vocabularies. Hopes and expectations were raised very high. Given that all the promises made could not be met, cross-sections of the population began gnashing their teeth against their leaders and silently wished for their replacement. However, because they owed a lot to these revolutionary heroes, such wishes could not be voiced openly, but circulated within family confines and private meeting places. The cries of the masses were heard by their leaders but because they were caught in the web of power addiction like opium, they resorted to techniques of terror against any political opponent to the policies of the regime. Under the single-party , the leaders imposed their will to the people. Many were forced to go into exile in order to to air their views while others used the support of neighbouring states to start planning revolutionary attacks against the regime. It is under this context that Africa started witnessing coups d'etat and assassination of heads of state. One of the earliest coups occurred in 1965 in Algeria when Houari Boumedienne deposed Ahmed Ben Bella. In 1966, Maurice Yameogo who became the first president of Burkina Faso in 1960 was deposed in a military coup led by Lt. Col. Sangoule Lamizana. In 1969 , Mouamar El-Gaddafi staged a bloodless coup against king Idris I; and in 1979,Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbazogo took over power through a coup against Franscisco Macias who was later tried and sentenced to death. To cut the long list short, it is worth mentioning that there were 85 coups in 33 African countries between 1952 and 2000 , with Western Africa being the greatest victim. I term the coups between the 1960s and 1980s as coups of the first generation. These coups were mostly designed to bring down the leaders of independence who transformed into dictators.

Recently , there have been a new wave of coups against dictators in Africa. In August 2008, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz led a coup that toppled the Government of Sidi Cheikh Ould Abdallahi in Mauritania in reaction to the regime's anti-constitutional behaviours; meanwhile the iron man of Guinea Moussa Dadis Camara copying from the Mauritanian example, led a bloodless coup on 23 December, after the death of dictator Lansana Conte on 22 December 2008.Unlike most of the coups of the first generation which were mostly against the human rights violations of repressive and single-state regimes and their refusal to welcome multi-party democracy, most of the coups of the second generation which took place between the 1990s and 2003, were spurred by the desire to end regimes' hard line reaction to political opponents and military dissidents; ethnic imbalance and the thirst for power. Meanwhile the recent or third generation coups occurring from 2005 to present have been motivated to a larger extent by the desire to cleanse the misdemeanours of the dictatorial political elite, particularly the desire to end corruption, dictatorship and restore genuine democracy and the respect for the constitution . The recent rise in these acts is sending a strong message to African leaders across the continent. It literally translates the maturity of the African people as far as the understanding of the dynamics of democracy is concerned. The success of democracy not only in Western countries like France and the United States but also in African countries like Ghana and South Africa have been an eye opener to many Africans who have long endured the pains of democratic malpractices and constitutional hijacking from their autocratic leaders. This renewed conscientiousness and determination for change occurring two decades after the introduction of multi party politics in the continent has taken a new pump and is consuming the continent like wild fire. On 18 February 2010, it was the turn of armed military men in Niger to initiate political cleansing when they overthrew the dictator Mamadou Tandja who in an effort to remain glued to power , twisted the ams of the Nigerien population into accepting the results of a flawed popular referendum, designed to indefinitely extend his term after December 2009; a move which was condemned by the opposition and educated elites of the country. After the coup, the masses rallied to praise the action of the military junta while hoping for a return to a constitutional order.

Cameroon does not stand out as an exception to the defective African leadership in the continent. As a mater of fact, the first president of Cameroon Ahmadou Ahidjo (1960 - 1982)was a dictator who loved to be called “ the Father of the nation” like his deceased colleague Omar Bongo of Gabon. Ahidjo ruled the nation with an iron hand under the unique CNU (Cameroon National Union) party; cracking down opposition groups. Luckily at the time, the flames of multi-party politics had not been lit on the continent due to the ongoing Cold War between the East and the West. In 1982, Paul Biya was handed over power on a platter of gold, without any merits, but because of his docile attitude which can be likened to the “yes sir “ men of the colonial period. Upon accession to power, he promised rigour and moralisation, prosperity, justice, the fight against favouritism , corruption and the respect for the constitution under the term New Deal. Thanks to the corrupt machinery under the control of the regime's party , the Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (CPDM) ; Biya has been able to rig elections since 1992 , thereby transforming Cameroon into a dictatorial monarchy. The judiciary and the legislative have become an extension of the executive and king Biya has designed a network of elimination by killing or imprisoning both political opposition members and former allies-turned- opponents who now constitute threats to his reign.
Although more than 75 percent of the population is disgruntled by his rule and desire a change, they are powerless and their cries and tears have not yet yielded the desired results because of his extensive use of the police and gendarmes to crack down every civilian manifestations. The recent February 2008 strike was not entirely motivated by hunger and price hikes. The youths took to the streets mainly because Biya decided to modify the constitution which was to enable him to eternalise himself in power after 27 years of dictatorial rule. Effectively, in April 2008, parliament adopted a constitutional bill that removed the two-term mandate limit to Biya's tenure of office so he could contest the presidency after 2011.The police and gendarmes did the “dirty job” of repression and killing of unarmed youths as a show of allegiance to the “king”. The question is, for how long will the allegiance last, given that amongst Biya's collaborators, there are traitors who have nursed ambitions of taking over but have not yet figured out a plausible strategy to execute their hidden agendas.


In my previous article entitled; Cameroon: An “Island of Peace” or a Mere Time Bomb? A Conflict Prevention and Early Warning Analysis of the Country, I made mention of a possible coup d'etat occurring in Cameroon in the near future based on the tensed political climate of the county. Biya has been able through his political savvy to use motions of support from his CPDM party sycophants to claim that Cameroonians want him to stand for re-election at the end of his mandate in 2011 ; and has already announced his intentions to do so. The low and middle class Cameroonians are tired of Biya's monotonous presence in the Cameroonian political scene ; but the fear of police brutality only help to increase their helplessness. The successes registered in Mauritania, Guinea and recently in Niger may serve as inspirational examples to accelerate the cleansing process in Cameroon. Biya and his 27 years of autocratic reign has soiled Cameroon and there is the dire need for the land to be cleansed. If a coup was to occur in Cameroon, it is strongly believe that, just like in Niger; 90 percent of the Cameroonian population will approve of the act, while hailing praises on the Cameroonian military as the liberators of the new age. Given that the same causes always produce the same effects, history risk to repeat itself in Cameroon; but in the meantime, only time will tell.