2011: The End of Biya’s Regime or the Collapse of Cameroon

There is a lot of polemics and mind boggling over the upcoming presidential elections in Cameroon as well as its outcomes. The question that animates bars, petty groups, political, intellectual and international onlookers’ discussions is whether, the 2011 elections will bring the much awaited change that many Cameroonians have been yearning for, or if the country is going to break down into pieces. The one preoccupying issue revolves around the foundations of Cameroon’s democracy, especially the body that is going to organize the upcoming elections. ELECAM which resurrected from the defunct regime’s owned ONEL is up to no good as far as the “democratization” of the political stakes are concerned. It is no hidden secret that the Biya regime has placed its lackeys at strategic positions in ELECAM - a body which prides itself of being independent and neutral. The truth is, ELECAM from head to toe is led by CPDM militants and only a bunch of blind people will nod their heads to any result that will come from such a corrupt body. But the reality is , the said ELECAM is the only existing body so far at the approach of the 2011 elections. With such a flawed political dispensation, there is no guarantee of any accountability, transparency, freedom or fairness in any such elections . Any result declared by ELECAM will never be genuine and up to the international standards of a true democracy. Paul Biya has long used the legislative body; which is an extension of his executive power, to maintain himself in power by rigging poll results.Opposition parties in Cameroon have long decried Biya’s foul play in the political game, but the regime seems to be indifferent about their complaints. As long as his position is secured, Biya does nor care about satisfying the masses. Matter fact, He never came to power through the polls, so we cant expect him to behave otherwise.He is struggling to consolidate and colonize power he never worked hard to get.Although Biya is aware of the fact that Cameroonians yearn for political alteration, his addiction to power pushed him to unlawfully revise the country’s Constitution in 2008 so as to stand for President in the upcoming polls and beyond; and as long as there is air in his aging lungs.

The million dollar questions one should ask at this juncture will be to know what the opposition plans to do to oust Biya; given the present political dispensation? Will the opposition press harder for the establishment of a true independent and neutral electoral body to manage the 2011 elections? Will they boycott the elections incase this request or desire is not granted by “King Biya”? or maybe they are getting ready to toe the line to the slaughter house and be mercilessly butchered on the alter of democratic inertia and emptiness.

Whatever they decide to do, one thing is certain, Cameroonians have set the bar on 2011. This is the last and only chance they have given the opposition and to a lesser extent the international community to do a miracle for change in the country. Another issue will be to question if there really exist a credible opposition in Cameroon, but that is a debate I wish to leave for others to deal with.

Biya is an indisputable roadblock for constructive dialogue, development and nation building in Cameroon. His apathy to address a lot of issues including the plight of Southern Cameroonians is one of the contributing factors for stiff struggle led by Southern Cameroonians to restore their independence; after being fade up with a confused, deceitful and unproductive Union. Biya has been refusing to get to the dialogue table despite decisions and request of international bodies such as the African Commission on Human and People’s Rights in the Gambia. If for some strange reason Biya is taken off the political scene; real and meaningful talks about the Southern Cameroons cries and demands will then begin and new arrangements and agreements based on equality, democracy, rule of law and human rights will be reached.

Biya recently went with a bunch of Cameroonian troops to join his master France in celebrating France's independence day on 14 July 2010. I view his excitement and flamboyant gestures during the ceremony as a strategic move to impress his master(France); and in return gain France's support in the upcoming elections and ascertain his throne. No wonder he was smiling from ear to ear and clapping openly for the master to see his allegiance to the “Club of Stooges”.
The year 2011 is a very determining year as far as knowing the direction the country will embrace. Will the year 2011 mark the beginning of a new dawn and the political and socio-economic reconstruction of the country - by putting in place real political - democratic, economic and social institutions and infrastructures? or will it mark the death of the “illusionary peace” that has long been celebrated ans used to blind the people to docility? Biya and the opposition leaders (if any we have)can best figure out the answer; but in the meantime, lets prepare the pages of history while it gets ready to judge them. Based on the political climate in Cameroon, a certainty remains: any unfair outcome from the polls (if Biya tricks his way and wins) might only be the catalyst to trigger a lot of bloodshed.

I want to make a solemn call to the international community and the United Nations in particular to stop the “silent conspiracy” and double standard position and speak out in very clear terms to Biya and his regime; particularly about the outcome of their continuous democratic insurgency in Cameroon.
The United Nations was not only created to act as the fire fighter in global crises but also to prevent the fire from being lit. Their long recognition of the results of fake polls in dictatorial regimes like Cameroon as well as their silence in repudiating the undemocratic practices of Biya and his click of corrupt mafias has done nothing but water the seed of mayhem in Cameroon. Although they so much depend on Cameroon to maintain peace in a sub-region characterized by violence and conflicts; blinded by the illusion that Cameroon is a pole of peace; they may be disillusioned even more when the tables turn and Cameroon becomes the center of discussion. When or if this happens, the international community should know they contributed to it by keeping silent when it was time to speak out. While all hopes for a better outcome in the post-2011 polls are still kept high, let’s expect concrete and affirmative actions from the Cameroon opposition parties and leaders and the international community; and avoid the mayhem which peers Cameroon from the horizon like an eagle ready to swoop on a prey.